U.S. economy on the brink of collapse: tariff storm is coming, can the Fed save it?

The American economy? Ha, it's like an old broken-down car that’s sputtering and has the pedal to the metal, and it's still blowing black smoke! Jonathan Pingel and those wise folks at UBS are throwing out data that slaps us in the face – GDP growth for the first half of 2025 is only 1.2%! What does this number even mean? Just two years ago, it was running around like a decent person, and now it’s lying flat and gasping for breath! Even more outrageous is domestic demand, which last year charged past 3%, and this year it’s dropped to a pathetic 1%! This isn’t just a cold or fever; this is like being on a ventilator in the ICU, brother!

Labor market? Terrible! Capitalized terrible! In July, non-farm employment only added 73,000 jobs, which is fewer than the number of people hired by street pancake stalls! With these pathetic numbers, in the past few months, there were also inflation and fraud caught red-handed; once you squeeze out the excess, the average for three months is only 35,000 per month! The unemployment rate shot up to 4.25%, hitting a four-year high! The U-6 indicator is even worse, a whole point higher than before the pandemic! UBS's report has stripped it bare—it's not immigrants taking away jobs, it's the common people who have lost hope! Jobs? Yes! But I won't do it! I'm lying flat! This is a complete collapse of economic confidence, a collective downturn!

The most outrageous operation is here! The economy is on the verge of collapsing, and those guys in Washington suddenly think, "Let's raise some tariffs to boost our spirits!" Nearly 70 brother countries, whether it's Canada or the EU, all get cut! The weighted tariff goes from 16% to 19%. Doesn't sound like much? But this cut is on the main artery! It directly bleeds 0.1% to 0.2% of GDP! The EU's cars, chips, and medicines will have a 15% skin peeled off upon entry! What if that insane 200% drug tariff really takes effect? Ha! Just wait to see the common people crying while holding expensive medicine bottles! This is not governing the country; this is just adding fuel to the fire because the crematorium business is too poor!

Inflation? Don't worry! The double whammy is coming soon! Core inflation is now 2.8%, and UBS says it could soar to 3.4% by the end of the year! Why? The tariff knife cuts the importers, and the blood splatters on the faces of the common people! Businesses aren't stupid; costs are rising? Raise prices! But what about your salary? It's frozen like a grandson! Ordinary people's lives are: left hand salary not increasing, right hand prices skyrocketing! Sandwiched in between, it's unbearable! Those suited folks at the Fed can’t sit still either; they’re hinting at a 25 basis points rate cut in September and another 100 points next year. Effective? Pfft! It's like a house is on fire, and instead of calling the fire department, you pick up a watering can and spray a bit—what's the point!

Pinger's report is clear enough: demand has collapsed, jobs have cooled, and tariffs have exploded! Three mountains are pressing down, and the Fed's interest rate cuts are just scratching the surface! If you ask me, the root of the problem is that bunch of shortsighted folks in Washington! The economy is already in a slump, and yet they are still pouring tariffs like a bowl of poison soup? This is purely seeking death! And "protecting American industries"? Protecting what, exactly? Once the global supply chain is disrupted, costs will soar, and ultimately, it all gets passed on to the people's bills! Small businesses are going bankrupt in droves, unemployment is rising, and demand continues to shrink—it's a vicious cycle! The little bit of money from interest rate cuts flowing into the market won't heal the wounds of supply; instead, it could fatten the hungry wolf of inflation even more!

Now let's see how this play ends: If the Fed really lowers interest rates in September, the stock market gamblers will definitely be excited for two minutes. And then? Tariffs will come down like a knife, and the prices of imported goods will soar! Old Wang's small supermarket on the corner, German beer up by 30%, Korean TVs more expensive by 500, can Old Wang bear it? If he can't hold on, he'll have to close the door!

Another name added to the unemployment list! Is the EU just being passive? A backhand slap comes back, and the trade war begins! Factories in Asia are shaking, and the global supply chain is in shambles! Ordinary people see this situation and hold their wallets even tighter, their demand completely frozen into ice blocks! When that stagflation monster truly emerges—economic growth stagnates, and prices rise every day! What will ordinary people become? Salaries crawl like snails, while prices soar like rockets! UBS's predictions? Too polite! Reality will only be bloodier!

Finally, let me ask you a heart-wrenching question: With the Fed's rate cut anesthetic applied, will the U.S. economy be able to wobble back up, or will it just fall headfirst into the coffin? Are those two coins in your pocket enough to buy yourself a pair of knee pads?