XRP falls below 2.9 USD, October's key regulatory decision may become a turning point.

As of August 26, 2025, Gate data shows that the XRP price is temporarily reported at $2.91, with a 24-hour fall of approximately 2.16%, and it reached a low of $2.78 in the past 24 hours.

It is worth noting that XRP has fluctuated around $2.93 for most of the day and once fell below the key support level of $2.9. This reflects a clear divergence between bulls and bears in the market following a recent rebound.

Price Trend: Short-term pressure under the descending channel, key support level under test

XRP is currently trading within a falling channel. This is a common pattern in technical analysis, but it means that upward momentum is limited in the short term.

The EMA (Exponential Moving Average) cluster on the 4-hour chart has formed a bearish alignment, pressing below $3.00, which constitutes the main resistance for the recent rebound. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is around 32, close to the oversold area, indicating that selling pressure may weaken in the short term, but the trend has not yet reversed.

The current key support level is in the range of $2.90 to $2.93. If this support level is effectively broken, the next important liquidity support area is around $2.66.

Market Sentiment: Regulatory Uncertainty Persists, Institutional Funds Remain Cautious

Although Ripple has reached a settlement with the SEC, removing a significant obstacle for the market, new uncertainties in regulation have emerged once again.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed the decision date for applications of five spot XRP ETFs, including Grayscale and 21Shares, to mid to late October. Such decisions are typically made in October, and this delay aligns with market expectations.

In addition, Ripple's application for a national bank charter with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) is also expected to have a final result around the end of October. These two important regulatory decisions make October a key month in determining whether XRP can attract a new round of institutional funding.

Ecosystem Progress: XRPL Technology Upgrade, File Storage Testnet Launching Soon

Amidst the short-term fluctuations in the market, the ecological development of the XRP Ledger (XRPL) is still progressing steadily. A developer using the pseudonym "Vincent Van Code" announced that the MVP testnet for the first file storage service based on XRPL is expected to be launched in about 2 months.

The original concept of the project was to provide notarization services for documents, which later expanded into the vision of building an immutable, compliant long-term document storage network to meet the needs of enterprise-level users.

The network plans to store files in mirrored locations globally and supports control through common wallets such as Xaman, aiming to provide a century-long storage solution that meets strict certifications such as SOC22 and ISO27001.

Future Predictions: Analysts have Diverging Views, Long-term Outlook Remains Positive

Analysts have significant disagreements regarding the future price of XRP.

Conservative views suggest that macro risks and the expectation of potential ETF delays will suppress gains, with the target price by the end of 2025 mostly between $3.50 and $4.10.

The neutral view is based on historical data and Fibonacci extension analysis, providing a year-end target price of $5.00 to $5.50. Standard Chartered's analysis also supports a target of $5.50.

Optimistic technical analysts, such as Steph Is Crypto, infer based on cyclical models that if the market replicates the breakout trend of March 2024, XRP may even have the potential to reach 15 dollars within the next 40 days.

A longer-term outlook is linked to the adoption rate of XRPL in the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). Some analyses suggest that if XRPL can capture 20% of the RWA market share, the price of XRP could theoretically reach $134.5.

Future Outlook

The current support level of $2.90 is crucial. If it successfully holds, coupled with the potential double positives in October (ETF and banking licenses), the price is expected to rebound towards $3.20 or even $3.50.

If the support fails, the price may drop to 2.66 USD. For long-term investors, each deep correction supported by news may become an opportunity to position for the future.