Bitcoin breaks through the $110,000 mark, Ethereum faces a key resistance level, how will the market respond to trade tariff risks?

Market Overview

Despite the United States postponing tariffs until August 1, it once again threatened to raise import tax rates on major trading partners this week, leading to ongoing uncertainty about the final tariff levels. A report from UBS shows that the currently implemented tariffs amount to a tax equivalent to 1.5% of GDP on U.S. importers, with annual tariff revenues exceeding $300 billion. Its lagged effects on inflation are expected to be reflected in the July CPI data to be released in August. This delay stems from corporate inventory buffers, slow transmission of intermediate goods prices, and the CPI bi-monthly sampling mechanism. Historical data indicates that a 10% general tariff takes 2-3 months to fully reflect in the price index.

In terms of interest rate policy, the Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma. A survey by the New York Fed shows that one-year inflation expectations have fallen to 3%, but pressures from components such as medical costs (9.3%) and college tuition (9.1%) remain significant. At the same time, the labor market is showing conflicting signals - concerns about unemployment have eased, but the difficulty of re-employment has increased.

Hong Kong is set to implement the "Stablecoin Regulation" in August, and the market is full of expectations for the compliance dividends that will come once the regulatory framework is clarified. Recently, Hong Kong stocks related to stablecoins have surged significantly, reflecting the market's strong anticipation of compliance dividends following the implementation of the regulations in August. The regulatory framework will cover core requirements such as anti-money laundering and reserve auditing, and the first batch of licenses planned to be issued within the year may reshape the competitive landscape of the industry. However, for stablecoins to disrupt traditional payment systems, they still need to overcome three major obstacles: the distribution mechanism of interests between financial institutions and technology companies, the challenges of cross-border regulatory coordination, and the stress testing of systemic risks under extreme market conditions.

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis

The cryptocurrency market is undergoing key technical breakthroughs and cycle validation stages, with both bulls and bears fiercely contesting around the $110,000 mark. Analysis shows that if the price cannot break through this resistance level, it could quickly retreat to $100,000; conversely, there is potential to surge towards $120,000. Optimistic predictions suggest that, combined with the trend of M2 money supply, Bitcoin may rise to the range of $120,000 to $125,000 in the next phase. In the long term, based on historical halving cycles, the peak of this bull market could occur between mid-September and mid-October 2025. Some analysts have already begun to gradually reduce their positions and plan to fully exit the market before October 2025. There are also views that Bitcoin has solid support around $106,360.

Regarding Ethereum, ETH is approaching the triangle resistance level of 2630 USD after breaking through 2600 USD, and it is recommended to pay attention to changes in trading volume to confirm the trend. The market's optimistic sentiment towards Ethereum is also transmitting to the stocks holding related tokens, with several associated listed companies' stock prices significantly rising.

In the altcoin market, a certain project announced the migration of its DEX from Arbitrum to other networks, gradually phasing out its native token, resulting in a 60% drop in the token's value within 24 hours. Although some tokens within the Solana ecosystem remain popular, they have experienced a pullback of over 30%, and the market currently lacks a sustainable new narrative. It is worth noting that some emerging tokens have quickly surpassed a market capitalization of $2 million, driven by their popularity on social media.

Key Data

As of July 9, 12:00 HKT, the price of Bitcoin is $108,513, with a year-to-date increase of 15.99% and a daily trading volume of $21.324 billion. The price of Ether is $2,600.10, with a year-to-date decrease of 22.06% and a daily trading volume of $15.521 billion. The market fear and greed index is at 67, indicating a greedy state. The market shares of Bitcoin and Ethereum are 64.2% and 9.3%, respectively. In the last 24 hours, a total of 59,563 people have been liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $12.1 million, including $22.3 million for Bitcoin and $34.98 million for Ethereum.

ETF Capital Flow

As of July 8, Bitcoin ETF has seen a net inflow for 4 consecutive days, with an inflow of 80.08 million USD on that day. Ethereum ETF has seen a net inflow for 3 consecutive days, with an inflow of 46.6308 million USD on that day.

Market Outlook

In the coming days, the market will focus on the minutes from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, as well as economic data such as the number of initial jobless claims in the United States. In addition, certain cryptocurrency exchanges will launch new projects, which may lead to market fluctuations. Investors should closely monitor the potential impact of these factors on the market.

In the current market environment, investors need to carefully assess the impact of trade tariff risks on the overall economy and the cryptocurrency market. At the same time, as the regulatory framework becomes clearer, compliance will become an important competitive advantage for cryptocurrency projects and platforms. For individual popular tokens and concepts, it is recommended that investors remain rational and focus on the long-term development prospects and practical application value of the projects, rather than short-term market speculation.